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#现象/趋势

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10月15日周四
  1. “哇,这个 Muse 设备真酷……太有感觉了...” “我的 AI 智能体不活在聊天窗口里。她住在我的工作室墙上 🌅 Pi 5 + 激光投影仪 + 无屏幕、无应用——只有她,漂浮在墙上,随着工作状态改变。” “我们大声说话——她倾听,并以她自己的声音回答。” “@alexandr_wang @natfriedman ——你们的 @muse SDK 已经从设备中逃脱,搬了进来! 仍在进行中——新的感官即将到来...”

    引用psathakis.eth@zatadigitall

    My AI agent doesn't live in a chat window. She lives on my studio wall 🌅 Pi 5 + laser projector + No screen, no app — just her, floating on the wall, changing state as she works. We talk out loud — she listens, and answers back in her own voice. @alexandr_wang @natfriedman — your @muse SDK escaped the gadget and moved in! Still a work in progress — new senses coming..

    Alexandr Wang观点大佬观点现象/趋势评分 17
  2. "AI 助手操作国民级 App 体验不佳,用户更倾向于自行操作;智能助手需先优化自身生态体验;重做对 AI 友好的双边网络或为解决之道。"

    引用sleepy@sleepy0x13

    我觉得豆包手机就是未来手机应该有的样子。只可惜,这是中国互联网永远等不来的未来。 今天看到豆包手机助手公布的最新名单,153 款 App 明确拒绝 AI Agent 进行屏幕自动化操作。微信、QQ、淘宝、支付宝、美团、拼多多、小红书,甚至 DeepSeek 和 Kimi 都在里面。 我其实一直挺看好豆包手机的。过去十几年,智能手机的发展几乎都是围绕 App 展开的,我们每天花大量时间在不同 App 之间切换,自己搜索、比较、点击、填写信息。现在终于有了一种新的交互方式,你只需要告诉手机想做什么,剩下的交给 AI。 我觉得这才是 AI 时代手机应该发生的变化。 但问题也恰恰出在这里。 如果 AI 可以替用户点外卖、订机票、买东西,用户就不再需要反复打开那些 App,更不会按照平台设计好的路径去浏览商品、观看广告、接受推荐。 对于用户来说,这当然是好事。但对于那些花了十几年、几百亿才建立起流量入口的互联网巨头来说,这简直是在动它们的命根子。 过去这么多年,中国互联网最擅长的事情之一,就是把用户困在自己的生态里。链接不能随便跳,数据不能随便拿,服务也很难跨平台调用。每家公司都想成为用户的唯一入口。 现在 AI 终于有机会把这些割裂的服务重新连接起来了,结果大家又开始关门。 更有意思的是,几乎所有这些公司都在大谈 Agent,都在宣传 AI 将如何改变未来。 我相信豆包手机代表的交互方式迟早会成为主流,也相信技术问题会一个个解决。但技术进步从来不意味着既得利益者会主动让路。 中国互联网什么都不缺,模型、工程师、产品能力、庞大的用户市场,我们都有。 唯独缺一个愿意让别人进来的互联网。 我们可能比任何时候都更接近下一代手机,却依然被困在上一代互联网里。

    Bojie Li观点现象/趋势大佬观点评分 40
  3. "AI对员工效率提升仅50%,少数员工能实现10x、100x效率提升。制造业约束难以转化为技能,模型持续学习能力有限,构建RL环境困难。AI在数学、理论、网络安全等领域表现优异,但在现实交互中存在鸿沟。"

    引用François Chollet@fchollet

    String theory is what happens when an intelligent system is starved of sensory input and starts hallucinating. Intelligence needs grounding. For this reason, intelligence is practically never the bottleneck to solving impactful problems. The bottleneck is iterated contact with reality.

    Bojie Li观点大佬观点现象/趋势评分 40
  4. Claire Vo 对 Muse Wonder 和 Muse Wonder Full 进行了深入评测,探讨了其在智能体任务处理上的表现和设计上的不足。她表示,尽管对处理智能体任务的能力印象深刻,但对设计方面的表现不太满意,是否每天都会使用还有待观察。完整评测视频可在 YouTube 上观看。

    引用claire vo 🖤@clairevo

    LIVE: The full How I AI bench on Muse Wonder (and Wonder Full) - the new frontier model by @AIatMeta I really loved how it handled agentic tasks, really hated what it designed. Still TBD: will I reach for it every day? Full ep on YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dChiPsd0uF4

    Alexandr Wang观点大佬观点评测/基准评分 20
10月14日周三
  1. Meta高管Finkd和Wang讨论了Muse Wonder及其前沿模型构建,并展望了AI未来。

    引用John Collison@collision

    Cheeky Pint is back! Mark Zuckerberg @finkd and Alexandr Wang @alexandr_wang came to the pub to discuss their new frontier model, Muse Wonder. 00:00:24 Muse’s breakout use cases 00:07:28 The model is the product 00:14:35 Muse Wonder 00:24:56 How frontier models are built 00:48:26 Betting $100B 01:07:21 Agentic commerce 01:19:34 OpenRouter 01:20:06 Beyond the smartphone 01:27:00 Funding 01:34:06 Why AI won’t be winner-take-all 01:40:46 Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) 02:08:11 Working for Mark Zuckerberg

    AI at Meta观点大佬观点行业动态评分 30
  2. "2021年,盘古大模型发布,标志着大模型价值被认可,推动UB项目升级为公司战略。至2025年,Ascend 950量产,实现当年协议和设想。LLM多数技术已有前沿研究员预研,但agent领域深入程度尚不及网络。"

    引用月球大叔@uncle_moon_x

    这个Anthropic披露的文件是真的吗? 2021年7月 - 讨论1T模型的训练和RL - 讨论硬件的风险,TPU,Trainium - 讨论language,code,diffs,PRs,等数据集的构造 - 讨论各种各样的coding工具 - 讨论各种scaling law,reward model,test time compute,long context,memory - 讨论RL for tool use??? 每一个单词现在看完全不吃惊,但在当时2021,同时出现在一个文档,让我再次惊叹,人的认知差距可以跨这么多年吗 https://i.smitop.com/concise-research-roadmap.pdf

    Bojie Li观点大佬观点模型发布评分 37
10月13日周二
  1. DeepSeek 刘胜宇认为LLM产业化中,机器成本超过人力成本,工程经验比原始智能更重要。财务自由不能带来创造自由,进入新领域需深入学习、取得成果或具备整合资源的能力。

    引用Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

    Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

    Bojie Li观点大佬观点现象/趋势评分 25